Estimating Probabilities

Humans are utterly incompetent when it comes to estimating probabilities. Consider how hopeless they are at estimating the odds of having a motorcycle accident, of their home being flooded, of there being a hurricane or tornado. They are utterly incompetent when predicting odds important to the stock market, to personal finances or to personal health. They lose their shirts gambling because of preposterously optimistic estimates of odds. Yet these same bumbling humans imagine they know the odds of things like the spontaneous creation of a DNA (Deoxyribonucleic Acid) molecule which might happen only once in a billion years.

~ Roedy (1948-02-04 age:70)